This is what a ‘managed decline’ budget feels like

By Qiulae Wong

There’s a famous saying I like. “Don’t tell me what you value. Show me your budget and I’ll tell you what you value”. 

On Budget day, the Minister of Finance opened her speech by telling us what she values. 

“We want this to be a country our kids choose to live in when they grow up.. a place where their dreams can be realised” she said. 

Nice words. But Budget 2026 tells a very different story.

A time for transformation, not tweaks. 

The core issue with Budget 2026, is that it's designed for a different era. It is a collection of system tweaks that might have worked fine in 2006. But today, New Zealanders need new foundations to build our lives on. 

Economic growth is a good example. The bright spots in the growth-aligned budget lines - like increased infrastructure spending, a capital raise for Genesis Energy or support for training tradespeople - cannot make up for the significant reductions to our main engine for long-term growth. Core science. 

Our future prosperity requires us to transition to a productive, affordable and resilient economy. This is a future where our science, research and technology sectors create high-value businesses that pay high-wage jobs. In Budget 2026, the Government has fully abandoned its 2% of GDP target for R&D spending. For all the talk about building a technology-driven, high-value economy for our kids - this Budget says otherwise. 

In response, Opportunity will shortly release our policy to restore public and private sector science funding to at least 2% of GDP. 

Similarly on services like health, the Government’s bright spots - like funding to maintain service standards or expanding ambulance services - are sticking plasters on a system that requires structural reform. When it comes to health, justice or education, we need to ‘invest to save’ - funding preventative actions at scale that will reduce long-term pressures on our core systems.

 The Government has also opted for tweaks on the revenue side of the ledger. A small levy on banks and tightening tax rules for shareholder loans falls far short of the transformative tax changes we need now. Our recently released tax policy is an example of what real reform to broaden the tax base for long-term fiscal and social resilience looks like. 

On housing, $400 million in council incentives and RMA reform are great. But without major changes to redirect the enormous amounts of wealth sitting in property into work and innovation instead, it’s mostly window-dressing. 

A budget built on wishful thinking

There is no lolly scramble in this budget. But there is a fair amount of fairy dust sprinkled across the GDP growth forecasts and public service cuts that underpin it. 

In relying on 3.2% growth by 2028, the Government is underpinning its numbers on wishful thinking. In a time of rising geopolitical instability and domestic cost pressures (and without major reforms to actually power this growth), the RBNZ and multiple economists are right to cast doubt on this over-confident forecast. 

The recently announced cuts to the public service that balance Budget 2026 are reckless, unplanned and arbitrary. Opportunity supports government efficiency. But without a funded, long-term, bipartisan plan to embed AI into government, these cuts risk our critical services failing - incurring greater costs in money and trust down the line. 

Taken together, this is a budget that prays for stability so growth can happen, while delaying the structural changes that could actually deliver growth in an unstable world. 

Maybe that will work. But ‘pray and delay’ isn't a strategy. It's a bet. And Kiwis should expect better from their Government. 

The Opportunity this election

If we want our kids and grandkids to choose to realise their dreams in New Zealand, then the greatest value we need to demonstrate through our national budget is courage. 

Courage to tackle the major issues of our time instead of kicking them down the road. 

Courage to invest in their future, so they have the confidence to build a life here. 

This is why it’s time to send Opportunity to Parliament. 

We are a party that refuses to kick the can down the road, even if reform is politically challenging. 

We stand in stark opposition to the established parties' reliance on wishful thinking, arbitrary cuts, broad-spending sprees and tweaks. 

If you want to vote for political courage and a real plan this November - vote Opportunity.